Annual accident and exposure data from Flanders covering the period 1991-2007 are used in order to create state–space models and make road safety predictions for the period 2008-2015. We make use of the Latent Risk time series model, suitably developed for accident data in order to forecast the road safety situation that can be expected in the forthcoming years. In this model two components, the exposure measurement and the fatalities measurement (or another category of road casualties), are fitted simultaneously. Moreover, in the analysis we also focus on smaller subgroups, depending on the age of the road traffic victim, the road type and the road user type (or transport mode). Forecasts clearly show that the number of fatalities is expected to decrease, however not at the same rate for different subgroups. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting