Smart driving technologies have drawn significant attention in recent years, due to their rapid development and potential safety, mobility, and environmental benefits. Autonomous vehicles (AVs), connected vehicles (CVs), and connected-autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are the most significant technological advances in personal transport the world has seen in over a century, with a promising future of safer and more convenient transportation. Self-driving vehicles may dramatically reduce the 90% of all crashes that result from driver error (NHTSA 2008), while reducing driving burden and allowing for more productive or restful travel. The emergence of new automotive technologies will shift the dynamic between car and driver over the coming decades. New technologies can eliminate a large number of crashes, through effective crash avoidance systems. Vehicle control systems can also smooth traffic flows, through automatic control of acceleration and brakes, so that the driving experience and fuel consumption can be simultaneously improved. When vehicular automation and connectivity are fully interactive and adoption rates are high, use of new traffic signal control systems will become possible, which can reduce intersection and freeway delay significantly and increase safety of operations. CAVs are destined to change how the Texas transportation system operates. TxDOT is responsible for the nation’s most extensive state-level network, so it is imperative that TxDOT explore CAVs’ potential impacts on the design, maintenance, and operation of the state’s transportation systems. Research into CAVs’ mobility, environmental, legal, and safety implications for the state of Texas was conducted by UT Austin’s Center for Transportation Research (CTR) under Project 0-6847. This Executive Summary highlights key results of that work, including practical safety-focused recommendations to assist TxDOT in optimally planning for these new technologies. Success of smart driving technologies will depend on various public and private stakeholders’ efforts, and a thorough understanding of CAVs’ impacts requires a multidisciplinary approach. This report seeks to clarify the scope of smart driving technologies for DOT staff, and help them understand the state of the practice associated with CAV research, development, and deployment. This work anticipates the evolution of the light-duty vehicle fleet and its use under various market scenarios (involving federal regulations, changing technology pricing and consumer willingness to pay over time); and it provide recommendations for DOTs to implement over the short, medium, and long terms. This report identifies potential best practices for TxDOT and other agencies to most cost-effectively facilitate Texans’ adoption and use of top safety and mobility technologies. Presently, the legal landscape of CVs and AVs is one of much uncertainty and flexibility. Current Texas laws do not directly address such technologies; if this ambiguity remains unaddressed, it could hamper the state’s ability to best prepare for CAV use. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) advocates adoption of laws that enable researchers to test CAV technologies while ensuring the safety of test subjects and roadway system users. Most observers, including NHTSA, agree that CAV research still needs development before driverless vehicles are ready for use by the public. In addition to setting the stage for advanced testing, the State must address questions concerning liability in the event of a crash involving CAV technologies like electronic stability control and lane-keeping assistance. Existing crash litigation for conventional vehicles should be updated to reflect the increasing use of automation technologies. Based on police-reported crashes in 2013, the total comprehensive crash costs involving light-duty vehicles is near $645 billion a year across the U.S. The potential safety benefits of using CAV technologies nationwide is estimated here to offer hundreds of billions of dollars in annual comprehensive crash savings. Implementation of CAV technologies can amplify the safety benefits, in terms of economic costs from goods, services, and productivity lost as well as comprehensive costs reflecting social issues, such as pain, suffering, and quality of life loss. Results suggest that eleven CAV technologies, such as Automatic Emergency Braking and Cooperative Intersection Collision Avoidance Systems, may save Americans over $100 billion each year in economic costs and roughly $400 billion per year in comprehensive costs. These estimates draw data from the most recent U.S. crash database and are based on pre-crash scenarios of the critical event leading to a collision and the avoidance or reduction in severity of crashes with each technology. Based on the analysis, complete automation has the greatest potential to mitigate crashes. While penetration of complete automation may be a long-term goal, automatic emergency braking (AEB) and cooperative intersection collision avoidance systems (CICAS) are two highly beneficial technologies that can be implemented more widely at a faster rate than full automation. Assessing the potential adoption rate of CAVs by the public is another crucial aspect of implementation. A national survey and a Texas survey assessed the current state of public opinions towards existing and forthcoming CAV technologies. The U.S.-wide survey’s fleet evolution results indicated that around 98% of the U.S. vehicle fleet is likely to have electronic stability control and connectivity by 2030. Long-term fleet evolution suggests that Level 4 AVs are likely to represent 25% to 87% of the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet in 2045. Results suggest that 41% of Texans are not ready or willing to use shared autonomous vehicles (SAV) and only 7% hope to rely entirely on an SAV fleet, even at $1 per mile. AVs and SAVs are less likely to affect Texans’ decisions about moving closer to or farther from the city center: about 81% indicated a desire to stay at their current location. The report identifies three categories of implementation strategies for TxDOT. It provides recommendations for TxDOT to pursue in the short term (next 5 years), medium term (five to fifteen years), and long term (15+ years) to facilitate and prepare for CAV prevalence, as described below. Since much CAV-related technology is still in the development or testing phase, it is important that research and testing efforts be sustained. In the near term, we recommend that a department-wide TxDOT working group be established to continue the research and testing needed to assess the technically feasible and economically reasonable steps for TxDOT. This working group should also create and periodically update an annual policy statement for CAVs, and a separate plan for non-CAV vehicle support and operations during the transition to CAVs. Another short-term recommendation includes the Traffic Operations Division working in conjunction with other divisions and districts to oversee research and testing to additional or modified traffic control devices and signage that will enhance CAV operation. Finally, we recommend that the Transportation Planning and Programming Division develop and continuously maintain a “working plan” for facilitating early adaptors of CAV technology, in particular the freight and public transportation industries. For the medium term, we recommend that the department-wide working group continue developing CAV policy statements and plans. The group should also coordinate CAV issues with AASHTO, other states, Transportation Research Board committees, the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, and the Texas Department of Public Safety. Additionally, the group should provide to the Legislature technical advice as well as recommendations for legislative policy making and changes or additions to the Texas Transportation Code and Texas Administrative Code. In the medium term, the Traffic Operations Division, in coordination with other divisions, the districts, and other stakeholders, should expand the research and testing from off-road test facilities to actual intersections, in addition to initiating research and testing for CAV-appropriate lane management operations–beginning with “platooning” and “CAV Only” lanes. Finally, the Transportation Planning and Programming Division should research, test, and recommend incentives (for example, micro-tolling, time of day operations restrictions, etc.) for the control of congestion as well as increased vehicle-miles traveled induced by CAVs. It is important that the lessons learned from experience be implemented to further evolve the transportation policies and modify the regulations for them to stay relevant. As a part of its long-term strategy, the TMO and TPP should continue steps needed to identify the optimal traffic demand management strategies that are economically feasible and environmentally compliant. TMO should also coordinate efforts with the engineering design divisions division (the Design Division and the Bridge Division) and the Maintenance Division to test and ultimately adopt changes to the Department’s manuals optimized for CAV/SAV operations. The engineering design divisions should undertake a similar approach to adopt roadway design elements that allow high speed, but safe, CAV roadway operations in rural and uncongested suburban areas. This report is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 is an executive summary that highlights the major findings and recommendations of this project. Chapter 2 systematically synthesizes existing and emerging smart driving technologies (CAV technologies) to conduct safety, system operation, and benefit-cost (B-C) analysis. Chapter 3 outlines project surveys that were undertaken at the U.S. and Texas level to gain insight into the public’s perceptions of technologies, determine their willingness to pay for CAV technologies, and develop matrices of market penetration rates for various CAV technologies over time, under different regulatory, pricing, and consumer willingness-to-pay scenarios. Chapter 4 analyzes the safety benefits of CAVs. Chapter 5 conducts a B-C analysis on the various CAV technologies. Chapter 6 provides the major findings and recommendations of this research project. In addition, a project guidebook (0-6849-P1) was also developed to accompany this research report. It is a summation of the recommendations, analysis, and findings, and was developed to assist a TxDOT or local jurisdiction transportation planner as they navigate the continued development and rollout of CAVs. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting