A preliminary, strategic assessment of the implications of long-term climatic changes due to the greenhouse effect for future conditions in canada and the likely impacts of such developments on canadian transportation are presented. It is assumed that emissions of greenhouse gases will be controlled through international cooperation so that their conentrations in the atmosphere stabilize by about 2050 at conditions equal to the "2 x co2" scenario (equivalent to twicethe preindustrial concentration of carbon dioxide) and that longer-term responses (e.G., Melting of ocean ice cover and northward movement of permafrost, the tree line, and agriculture) will reach equilibrium during the following decades. The most significant changes affecting canadian transportation would probably be increased marine and air services followed by a northward extension of road and rail networks and a new equilibrium between marine and land transportation that would reflect the longer shipping season in the st. Lawrence seaway and year-round operation of the port of churchill on hudson bay. Major expenditures would be required to protect coastal transportation facilities from floods and possibly to maintain navigation in the face of lower water levels on the great lakes. In general, however, if global temperatures stabilize as assumed, the implications forcanadian transportation of the postulated scenario will probably be, on balance, positive for canadian transportation. There would, however, be significant costs in adapting to the new circumstances, anda number of implications for policy and research and development are outlined. This paper appears in transportation research record no.1267, Global warming: transportation and energy considerations 1990.
Samenvatting