Public transport demand forecasting is a challenging and controversial process and both Australian and international forecasts have frequently been criticised for overestimating likely demand. It is important that organisations managing these forecasts develop sound processes to provide assurance to senior management, boards and key external stakeholders that the risks of inaccurate or inappropriate forecasts are being properly managed. In this paper, our goal was to develop recommendations for modelling practitioners and clients at both a strategic and project level to assist in the management of forecasting risks. To reach this goal the authors undertook a risk assessment of the patronage forecasting process for public transport considering: 1. the key stakeholders; 2. the objectives of a good public transport forecast; 3. the risks to achieving these objectives; and 4. management of these risks. Our methodology involved a literature review and in-depth discussions with 17 stakeholders in the NSW forecasting environment. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E213716.
Samenvatting