The micro behaviour of firms in a spatial disaggregate urban environment is complex and driven by accessibility developments, planning scenarios and agglomeration economies. A Spatial Firm demographic Micro simulation (SFM) model is developed that simulates transitions and events in the firm population. The micro simulation results provide improved possibilities to evaluate the impact of spatial- and transport planning scenarios. Moreover, a significant empirical contribution is made into the behaviour of firms in a disaggregate urban environment. The increasing disaggregation of integrated land use and transport models requires significant research into the micro behaviour of firms within the urban area. This research provides a Spatial Firm demographic Micro simulation (SFM) model that simulates transitions and events in the firm population. The objective is to quantify the effects of different spatial and transport planning scenarios on the firm population and mobility. The model simulates developments within the firm population: migration, growth, formation and dissolution. Events are modelled with a variety of models, accounting for a large heterogeneity in the population and detailed location attributes. These include hard accessibility measures from a transport model, soft transport factors and agglomeration economies. Models are estimated with an extensive micro dataset on the firm population. The developed approach accounts for firm specific behaviour, allowing a large variety in responses to changes in urban environment. The model estimations provide several empirical contributions. Accessibility is especially significant for soft accessibility measures such as highway or train station proximity and distinctive preferences between firms are found. Test simulations prove that the approach generates reliable estimates of future firm location, consistent with the behaviour of the individuals. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting