Various research projects and accident investigations have provided information on cycling safety such as accident risks, typical accident constellations or behaviour of cyclists or motorists involved in cycle accidents. The demographic change, increased use of pedelecs and an increasing share of cycling traffic on total traffic in cities are current changes in cycling traffic. This affects especially cycling traffic volumes, age-structure of cyclists and cycling speeds. In the future, more heterogeneous cycling speeds are expected in urban traffic. The impact of these changes on cycling safety and possible requirements for a safe cycling infrastructure, appropriate traffic rules and traffic education were not sufficiently researched yet. Therefore, the German Insurers Accident Research (UDV) commissioned a respective study. As a result, recommendations for a safe future design of cycling infrastructure were developed. This “compact accident research” summarizes the results of the study. Detailed results are described in the research report, which can be downloaded from http://www.udv.de/publikationen. The report is available in German only. First, a literature review was conducted summarizing the current knowledge on accident risks, typical accident constellations and behaviour of cyclists as well as of motorists involved in cycle accidents. Second, a macro- and microscopic analysis of cycle accidents was carried out and supplemented by behavioural observations. The investigations were carried out separately for intersections and segments. 192 segments with cycling infrastructure in German cities were researched. Third, traffic counts and behavioural observations were conducted including 108,677 cyclist and speed measurements of about 19,000 cyclists. The behavioural observation identified red light violations, trajectories at intersections and the acceptance respectively the non-usage of cycling facilities on segments. Possible influences of cyclists’ age, cycle type or type of cycling facility on cycling speeds were examined on segments. The results of the traffic counts, speed measurements and behavioural observations were then compared to the amount of cycle accidents with personal injuries of the years 2009 to 2011. Different influencing factors on cycling safety were analysed within a micro- and macro analysis of cycle accidents. Based on generalized linear models, multi-criterial influences on cycle accidents were identified and summarized in an accident prediction model. Six scenarios of possible future trends of cycling safety were developed on the basis of the accident analysis and the behavioural observations. The scenarios considered different trends in age structure, cycling speeds and cycling traffic volume. As a result, changes in cycling accident numbers, accident severity and accident types were assessed. Based on a comprehensive evaluation of the scenario results, conclusions were drawn on required adjustments to cycling infrastructure (segments and intersections) in order to ensure a high level of traffic safety under the changing conditions of cycling. (Author/publisher)
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