The Dutch Environmental Directorate-General has commissioned TNO Inro (Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development) to develop a long-term perspective (up to the year 2030) of the expected mobility and infrastructural developments in the Netherlands. This report describes the elaboration of this perspective, which can be divided into three main stages: (1) estimation of the future travel demand; (2) analysis of the infrastructural consequences; and (3) exploration of the possibilities of alternative transportation systems. Four contrasting scenarios have been developed to investigate the bandwidths in the possible future developments of travel demand: (a) `Individual expansion': high economic growth combined with an individual/market economy orientation; (b) `Sustainable growth': high economic growth combined with a collective/sustainable orientation; (c) `Work it out yourself': low economic growth combined with an individual/market economy orientation; and (d) `Face it together': low economic growth combined with a collective/sustainable orientation. The estimations were carried out by using the Scenario Explorer. In 1990-2030, a large growth of (road) travel can be expected, for both passenger car and for lorry traffic. The analyses also show that in the collective/sustainable scenarios the relationship between economic growth and increased pressure on the environment can be uncoupled: the increase in environmental damage is no longer proportional to the economic growth. A strict policy regarding transportation and physical planning can contribute significantly to the required incoupling of economical development and environmental damage.
Samenvatting