Some consequences are discussed of the expected future real economic growth of developing countries, in terms of increasing road traffic, consumption of petroleum products, and the environment. Possible critical factors, affecting the outcome, could include the road systems' capacity for integration into the development of societies, and the development of the internal combustion engine industry. In forming a development scenario for the transport of road passenger and freight transport for the years 2020 and 2060, the authors used the population growth forecasts, energy development scenarios, and trends and hypotheses for the energy traffic intensities of road transport, vehicles per head, head, and car mobility. They present detailed tables of projected statistics for 1988, 2020 and 2060, for various parts of the world, for: (1) road traffic intensity; (2) road freight fuel consumption; (3) car stock; and (4) car fuel consumption. For their development scenario and for their reference scenario, they project figures for the total global fuel consumption of road traffic, and equivalent global emissions of carbon dioxide.
Samenvatting