As a member of the institution of transportation engineer's committee that investigated the accuracy of past transportation forecasts and from his personal studies, the author reviews a number of forecasts made for international airports. At Dallas - Fort Worth international airport, for example, although the actual number of passengers through the airport was nearly 15% below the forecast figure, the number of aircraft movements was actually 36% above the forecast figure. This paper includes a discussion on the latest methods used in both Europe and the USA, and a review of the reasons why these methods have been developed and adopted. The advantages and disadvantages of the various methods will be discussed, dealing with both short and long terms forecasts. The sensitivity of the various methods will be examined. A discussion on the self fulfilling nature of some airport forecasting procedures will lead to recommendations on the need for flexibility in long term airport planning strategies. For the covering abstract of the proceedings see IRRD 274491.
Samenvatting