Retrofit introduction of contour marking for lorries. The Netherlands has an annual number of approximately 300 fatal or serious injury crashes involving lorries (rigid lorries, articulated lorries and trailers). European Commission CARE data indicates that in 2010 around 5000 people died on EU roads in crashes involving Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs), and 75% of these fatalities were occupants of other vehicles. Road traffic crashes involving lorries tend to be more serious than other crashes because of the great size and mass of these vehicles. Part of these crashes are due to lateral and rear-end collisions at dusk or in the dark. Previous SWOV research has shown that contour marking on lorries can contribute to the prevention of these types of crashes. EU directive 2007/35/EC states that from 10 July 2008, lorries with a minimum weight of 7.5 tonnes and trailers from a maximum mass of 3.5 tonnes must be fitted with contour marking that is approved and applied in the correct manner in order to pass the type approval test. From 10 July 2011, retroreflecting contour marking must not only be applied to new vehicle types, but also to older vehicle types that are licensed for the first time (European Union, 2007a, 2007b). The contour marking is not compulsory for existing vehicles that are already licensed. 3M wants to know which substantive arguments can be put forward to plead for introduction of contour marking for the existing vehicle park in the Netherlands and the European Union, the so-called retrofit, and asked SWOV to investigate the issue. The 3M request resulted in the following research questions: - What road safety effects can be expected as a result of retrofit application of contour marking on lorries in the Netherlands? - What are the social costs and benefits of this measure and is the measure socially cost-effective? - What are the costs and benefits for transport companies? - What is the effect of retrofit contour marking on the number of fatalities and seriously injured in the EU due to traffic crashes? Dutch and international literature were studied and a cost-benefit analysis was conducted to answer these questions. Based on Dutch and international research, it is estimated that in the present situation in the Netherlands, retrofit contour marking leads to an estimated maximum prevention of 3 fatalities, 16 serious road injuries and 481 crashes per year. This data is only valid for a situation in which none of the vehicles in the Dutch vehicle fleet would be fitted with contour marking and contour marking would be applied to all vehicles at the same time. This is not the actual situation and lorries are replaced when their service life has ended. In addition, due to previous European legislation, contour marking will already be applied to part of the vehicle fleet on 1 January 2015 ( commencement date for the measure in our calculations). Statistics Netherlands (CBS) data indicates that the average lifespan of rigid lorries and of articulated lorries is 13 years, and of trailers the average lifespan is 22 years. Gradual implementation of contour marking would imply that the entire fleet of trailers would continue to drive without retrofit for approximately 11 years, and the entire fleet of rigid lorries and articulated lorries for approximately 6,5 years. This data could be used to calculate the effect of implementing retrofit contour marking for all vehicles at once, if not for the fact that some lorries have already been fitted with contour marking. The fact that adaptations have already taken place, affects both the relevant fleet size (the share without retrofit) and the average lifespan of that share. There are various ways to include fleet changes in the calculation of the effect. The present calculations show that both factors (fleet size and lifespan) influence safety proportionally. Therefore, their effect on safety is the same, irrespective of, for example, fleet size or lifespan being half the size. If the above is taken into account, the total savings over the period during which the measure is being introduced (i.e. from 1 January 2015 until contour marking has been applied to all lorries) amounts to: • 8 fatalities; • 42 serious road injuries; • 1268 crashes. Chapter 2 discusses the reasons for possible over- or underestimates of these numbers. The costs of the retrofit introduction of contour marking for trucks in the Netherlands consist of the costs of the marking itself and the costs of applying the marking. The costs of applying the marking have been calculated for two different scenarios: a ‘maximum’ scenario in which full side contour markings are applied to the sides of all trucks, and a ‘minimum’ scenario in which only the bottom and the upper corners are marked, in accordance with the minimum requirements of the European Union.
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