The difficulties of predicting future energy use by the transportation sector are discussed. The first section deals with the methodological problems underlying the measurement of fuel use by transport, and the transport influencing future use such as the growth in the commercial fleet and in private car ownership. Advances in vehicle design which increase energy efficiency, or the increased use of diesel engines in the private car fleet are also discussed. The second section looks at the key policies affecting fuel use. The final section presents the results of an analysis undertaken to ascertain the impact of the fuel price fal in 1986 on transport consumption from 1980 to 1985 and in 1986 to 1987. Future scenarios are also described briefly.
Samenvatting