This report examines the trends in road fatality and injury rates (road death/injuries per billion vehicle kilometres travelled) in 21 countries around the world. Much of the report is technical in nature, dealing with the sources of data, and details of variable construction and modelling. Data back to 1965 has been assembled for 21 countries on road deaths and injuries, vehicle kilometres travelled by vehicle type, seat belt wearing rates, and alcohol and speed control proxies. The main result of all this data preparation has been the ability to document the consistent and yet varied patterns over time in fatality and injury rates in many countries around the globe. After rapid falls from the sixties, fatality and injury rates have been tending to level out, as seat belt wearing rates pass 90 per cent, and enforcement efforts bear down on the most risky behaviours. The main results of the study are models of road fatality rates as a function of seat belt wearing rates, enforcement activities regarding speed (using speed cameras) and alcohol (with random breath testing), and economic influences (principally unemployment). Experience from around the world also shows that laws lowering speed limits and legal blood alcohol limits are effective in saving lives. Models of injury rates are constructed from fatality rates. Each country is different, but the patterns of the models are similar. The models explain the common finding around the developed world of a fairly rapid downward trend in fatality and injury rates over the past four decades — slowing in the last decade. The models can be used to provide base-case and scenario forecasts of future trends in road fatality and injury rates in the 21 countries. These are useful in a variety of contexts, for instance, in forecasting road fatalities and injuries, evaluating various policies to meet road safety targets and needs for infrastructure investment. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting