THE NEED FOR SOME INDEX DESCRIBING THE LEVEL OF SAFETY OF THE ROAD SYSTEM ARISES IN STUDIES OF ACCIDENT TRENDS. DIFFICULTIES ARISING FROM THE USE OF VARIOUS EXPOSURE INDICES AND ACCIDENT RATES, IN PRESENT USE, ARE DESCRIBED. AN ANALOGY FROM ECONOMIC PRODUCTION THEORY, THE COBB-DOUGLAS MODEL, IS USED TO DESCRIBE VARIOUS LEVELS OF SAFETY. THEIR MODEL, WHICH BASICALLY FITS THE FORM OF SMEED'S FORMULA, RELATES THE NUMBER OF ROAD FATALITIES IN ANY COUNTRY (D), TO THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES (N) AND POPULATION (P). THE PARAMETER A, WHICH WAS DESCRIBED BY SMEED AS A CONSTANT, IN THIS CONTEXT BECOMES AN INDEX OF TECHNOLOGY AND IS ACCORDINGLY USED IN THIS STUDY AS A LEVEL OF SAFETY INDEX. SOME POSSIBLE USES OF THE INDEX ARE DESCRIBED, INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS, NATIONAL TREND STUDIES AND SOME FACTORS WHICH MIGHT POSSIBLY EXPLAIN CHANGES IN THE LEVEL OF SAFETY. (A). FOR THE COVERING ABSTRACT OF THE CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS SEE IRRD ABSTRACT NO. 226354.
Samenvatting