In 2015, large trucks (trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating of more than 10,000 pounds) were involved in 414,958 crashes that resulted in 116,000 injuries and 4,067 fatalities (Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, 2016). The AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety identified the potential of several large-truck advanced safety technologies as promising countermeasures to reduce these crashes. Advanced safety technologies may use sensors or alerts to warn a driver of a possible collision, actively assume control of a vehicle in situations where a driver does not react to the threat of an imminent crash, or improve driver and fleet management (e.g., monitoring vehicle safety systems and drivers’ hours-of-service status). Although some advanced safety technologies may be effective at preventing crashes, it is also important to know whether they are cost-effective, as this information may assist consumers in purchasing advanced safety technologies and/or government regulators in mandating their use. The objective of this research was to provide scientifically-based estimates of the societal benefits and costs of advanced safety technologies in large trucks (i.e., the impacts a technology may have across the entire society if implemented) in order to (1) allow the Department of Transportation to make informed decisions related to potential regulations on advanced safety technologies, and (2) promote the adoption of cost-effective advanced safety technologies to motor carriers. To accomplish this objective, an in-depth literature synthesis of 14 advanced safety technologies was completed, an expert advisory panel informed cost and benefit estimations for all advanced safety technologies (based on the literature review and their experience and knowledge), and benefit-cost analyses were performed on selected advanced safety technologies. The advisory panel recommended the following four technologies for benefit-cost analysis: automatic emergency braking systems, lane departure warning systems, air disc brakes, and video-based onboard safety monitoring systems. This report presents the results related to automatic emergency braking systems. See other AAA Foundation reports for analyses of lane departure warning systems, air disc brakes, and onboard safety monitoring systems. Automatic emergency braking systems combine a forward-looking sensor(s), driver alerts, and automatic vehicle braking. These systems are designed to reduce or prevent rear-end collisions in which the large truck strikes another vehicle (and, to a lesser extent, head-on collisions). The forward-looking sensor is used to detect a lead vehicle within a preset distance or time-to-collision. The system alerts the large-truck driver of the lead vehicle’s proximity through haptic, audible, visual, or a combination of warnings. At this point, the driver maintains control of the vehicle and can decide to reduce speed and/or steer to avoid the lead vehicle. However, if the driver does not apply the brakes or steer away from the lead vehicle and the system detects that a crash is imminent (i.e., a crash will occur if the truck continues at the current rate of speed and headway), the automatic emergency braking system will assume active control of the truck’s brakes to prevent or mitigate the imminent crash. The literature review identified five studies that estimated the efficacy of large truck automatic emergency braking systems in reducing crashes. These studies found the efficacy of automatic emergency braking systems in preventing large-truck rear-end crashes in which the large truck is the striking vehicle ranged from 16% to 52.3%. This wide range of efficacy was the result of variations in performance capabilities (i.e., braking to moving and/or stationary objects, 0.3 g to 0.6 g braking) between different generations of automatic emergency braking systems. Additionally, two documents provided costs associated with the systems, identifying them as ranging from $2,400 to $2,600 per vehicle. An Expert Advisory Panel convened May 17, 2016, at the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety headquarters in Washington, D.C. This advisory panel consisted of six individuals representing various aspects of the industry, including representatives from a commercial motor vehicle carrier, a trucking insurance company, the Federal Motor Carrier Association, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and an automatic emergency braking system vendor. The Panel also included an industry safety consultant. The purpose of this meeting was twofold: (1) to assist the research team in selecting technologies that require a benefit-cost analysis, and (2) to identify the appropriate efficacy rates and costs to be used in the benefit-cost analyses. Following this discussion, a benefit-cost analysis was recommended for automatic emergency braking systems, and upper- and lower-bound efficacy rates and costs were selected to use in the analysis. The panel recommended efficacy rates of 16% and 28% to reflect current performance capabilities of automatic emergency braking systems (as opposed to systems that were under development). This recommendation was based on results from Woodrooffe et al. (2012) for pre-2014 systems (i.e., systems which braked at 0.35 g and did not brake to fixed objects) as well as post-2014 systems (i.e., braking at 0.3 g to fixed objects; braking at 0.6 g to recently stopped/stopping vehicles). Additionally, the panel recommended a cost of $2,500 per truck based on vendor feedback and information gathered from the NorthAmerican Transportation Association (n.d.), and Hickman et al. (2013). The benefit-cost analysis followed conventional methods used in similar studies (e.g., Hickman et al., 2013) to estimate the societal benefits and costs of implementing automatic emergency braking systems in the trucking industry. Societal benefits of the systems associated with a reduction in crashes were compared with the costs of deploying the systems across the entire U.S. fleet of large trucks. The benefit and cost factors considered in this study are discussed below. Benefit Factors: • Medical-related costs; • Emergency response service costs; • Property damage; • Lost productivity; • Monetized value of pain, and the suffering and quality-of-life decrements experienced by families in a death or injury. Cost Factors: • System hardware purchase, installation, and financing costs; • System maintenance costs; • System replacement costs; • Costs associated with training for drivers and managers. To assess the impact automatic emergency braking systems could have on reducing crash rates (and the costs associated with the systems), national crash databases were used to identify the population of crashes that automatic emergency braking systems could potentially prevent. These crash databases included the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the General Estimates System (GES). The FARS database was used to determine the number of fatal crashes and their associated fatalities and injuries, and the GES database was used as an estimation for injury and property-damage-only crashes. The GES database also was used to estimate the number of injuries as a result of injury crashes. Queries were developed for crashes relevant to automatic emergency braking systems; information was extracted for different vehicle types for a period of six years (2010 to 2015). When filtering the GES and FARS crashes, the research team carefully considered the scenarios where a systems may have prevented the crashes. Specifically, only rear-end crashes where the large truck struck another vehicle were selected for automatic emergency braking systems. Additionally, the research team used the following GES/FARS variables to further limit crashes that may have been prevented by automatic emergency braking systems: pre-event movement, critical event, and first harmful event. Finally, all crashes that involved the use of alcohol or drugs by the large-truck driver were eliminated. The complete list of GES/FARS variables may be found in Appendix B. Two sets of benefit-cost analyses were performed for automatic emergency braking systems. The first set of analyses included retrofitting the entire U.S. fleet of large trucks. This approach assumed all new vehicles added to the fleet would be equipped with automatic emergency braking systems and old vehicles would be retrofitted with them. This analysis approach represented the scenario with the most benefits but also the highest costs. The second set of analyses used an annual incremental costs analysis approach. This approach assumed all new vehicles would be equipped with automatic emergency braking systems (starting in 2018) and did not include retrofitting existing vehicles. Societal benefits were assessed over the life of the vehicle. Additionally, for each analysis approach, an analysis was performed on different types of large trucks. The first analysis included all class 7 and 8 trucks (gross vehicle weight rating greater than 26,000 pounds). The second analysis was performed only using class 7 and 8 combination unit trucks (CUTs). The third analysis was performed only using class 7 and 8 single unit trucks (SUTs). Finally, separate analyses were performed to account for the rate of monetary discount, in the present value, of the cost and benefits in any future year. Following guidance from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB, 2003) analyses were performed using a 0%, 3%, and 7% discount rate. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting