The LKW-Maut system has set up a new tax on german road freight traffic on January 1st 2005. This system was expected to have effect on traffic, mainly by rerouting trucks from one side of the Rhine to another. Studies were carried out by the direction regionale de l'equipement in 2003 to evaluate the impact on Alsatian roads of this new toll. Expecting great effects, an observatory was set up. The presentation could explain or discuss the following questions: methodologies and results of the forecasts; methodology of the observatory which was set up; results of observations in the short and long term; . measures which had to be held to solve congestion problems; how the results could be used to take into account tolls into traffic modelling;Concerning forecasts, three methods were used: comparing local routes (time and costs) with a value of time distribution assessment and estimation of road freight transit between Karlsruhe and Basel. Modelling the toll into a global Rhine Superior multimodal traffic model for year 2020. Analysing main European traffic crossing France or Germany at large scale. All these analysis led to an estimate of 1500 to 2000 trucks changing route to Alsatian roads. Considering that this important surge of freight road traffic could lead to congestion or other trouble, it was decided to follow traffic growth as quick as possible after January 1st. The week was chosen as the relevant time period, taking only monday to friday figures. A test was conducted in April - May 2004 which was successful. In order to have an acute background for comparison, data were collected over the last five years, at least on a monthly basis. The weekly data were collected from end of November, over 36 points. The first weeks showed a surge of roughly 2000 trucks, on various routes. This figure is a bit more than prevision, and the spatial structure is also a bit different. Long term analysis will confirm or modify these first conclusions. Figures and route analysis will also enable to check several hypothesis on value of time and route choice for long and short distance freight traffic. This work is led in partnership with Strasbourg Louis Pasteur University. For the covering abstract please see ITRD E135207.
Samenvatting