The aim of the report is to prepare a basis for the National Board for Consumer Policies comprising: (1) analyses of the existing supply of new cars; (2) potential technical development up to the year; (3) different technical scenarios concerning reasonable changes in the characteristics of new passenger cars, including the use of alternative fuels and electric power, and (4) different alternatives concerning the renewal of the car fleet (sale of new passenger cars and scrapping rate). The carbon dioxide emissions from passenger car traffic should be compared with the goal set up by Parliament, i.e. not to exceed the 1990 level in the year 2000, and the goal of the National Environment Protection Board (SNV), a reduction of 20% by the year 2005. The data base of the National Board for Consumer Policies, containing fuel data for mixed driving and vehicle description data, is used for analyses and declarations of how fuel consumption is influenced by: service weight, the ratio between engine power and service weight, type of gearbox, model year, and make of car. All other factors being equal, technical development admits the efficiency enhancement of fuel consumption by 1.0% annually. The actual reduction is scarcely 0.9% annually, from 0.93 to 0.83 litres per ten kilometres because of increased service weight and power/weight figures. The two lower growth alternatives (low and intermediate) result in CO2 emission within the goal limits for all technical scenarios in the year 2000. The goal set up by the Swedish National Environment Protection Board concerning 2005, on the other hand, will only be met in the low growth alternative in certain technical scenarios. (A)
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