This report explores how a transition to driverless trucks could happen. Reduced reliance on humans to move road freight offers many benefits. It also threatens to disrupt the careers and lives of millions of professional truck drivers. Based on different scenarios for the large-scale introduction of automated road freight transport, this study makes recommendations to help governments manage potential disruption and ensure a just transition for affected drivers. Three leading transport-sector organisations joined the International Transport Forum for this project to assess benefits, costs and risks of a transition to driverless trucks. The International Road Transport Union, the International Transport Workers’ Federation and the European Automobile Manufacturers Association contributed insights on driverless technology in the road freight sector as well as funds for the research. Driverless trucks could be a regular presence on many roads within the next ten years. Self-driving trucks already operate in controlled environments like ports or mines, and trials on public roads are under way in many regions including the United States and the European Union. Manufacturers are investing heavily into truck-automation technology while many governments are actively reviewing their regulations to understand what changes would be required to allow self-driving vehicles on public roads. Automated trucks would enable cost savings, lower emissions and safer roads. They could also address the emerging shortage of professional drivers faced by the haulage industry, particularly in Europe. Without driverless trucks, around 6.4 million truck drivers are projected to be needed across Europe and the United States (US) by 2030, yet fewer than 5.6 million are projected to be available and willing to work under current conditions. The majority of truckers are in the later stages of their careers, while few women and young men are choosing trucking as a profession. The adoption of driverless trucks is likely to reduce demand for drivers at a faster rate than a supply shortage would emerge. Of the 6.4 million driver jobs in 2030, between 3.4 and 4.4 million would become redundant if driverless trucks are deployed quickly. Even accounting for prospective truck drivers being progressively dissuaded by the advent of driverless technology, over 2 million drivers across the US and Europe could be directly displaced by 2030 in some of the scenarios examined for this study. Preparing now for potential negative social impacts of job losses will mitigate the risks in case such a rapid transition occurs. While truck drivers are typically flexible, self-reliant and able to concentrate for long periods, their relatively low education level and potential automation in other sectors puts them at a high risk of extended periods of unemployment. Support available to displaced workers in developed economies may prove to be inadequate given the potential speed and scale of job losses. Active management of the transition will likely be needed to smooth the introduction of driverless technology, avoid excessive hardship for truck drivers, and ensure the gains from the technology are fairly shared across society. Recommendations: Governments, industry and researchers should continue to advance tests on public roads in designated corridors and areas for trialling vehicles, network technology and communications protocols. This way various technologies are able to be tested without committing to an individual company, standard or technology early in the development process, ensuring that expensive network-wide investments are not wasted or over-specified. This will help ensure societal benefits from automated road freight transport will be maximised. Harmonisation of rules across countries is critical for maximising the gains from driverless truck technology. Common vehicle standards and operational rules would allow smooth cross-border movements of autonomous trucks and should be put in place at least at a continental level, preferably at the global level. The proactive approach of many governments to test permits and ad hoc exemptions to road rules allows different approaches to be tested in parallel which can speed up the maturing of the technology. However, such competition entails the risk of insufficient attention on the ultimate goal of harmonisation. Governments should establish a transition advisory board for the trucking industry to advise on labour issues associated with the introduction of driverless trucks. The board should be temporary and include representatives from labour unions, road freight businesses, vehicle manufacturers and government. It would support the government in choosing the right policy mix to ensure that costs, benefits and risks from automated road haulage are fairly distributed. Governments should consider a mechanism to shape the transition to driverless trucks. A permit system would offer influence over the speed of uptake as well as revenue to support displaced drivers. Where economy-wide unemployment support is considered inadequate, additional assistance could come in the form of targeted labour market programs to try to re-deploy drivers. It could also take the form of additional income replacement payments where alternative employment opportunities have also been reduced by automation. For reasons of fairness, funds for transition assistance should be generated by the main beneficiaries of the operation of driverless trucks. The sale of permits to operators experiencing operating cost reductions could be complemented by contributions of all road users who will benefit from improved safety. Careful design of the permit system would ensure that permits are used to manage the labour transition fairly and not as a proxy to limit the free movement of goods. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting