Samenvatting
This article presents and discusses an adoptive evolution model for forecasting long term developments in road safety. It takes into account both traffic growth and human adaptation. Earlier parsimonious models such as those used here are also discussed, and shown to predict trends in accident rates quite well. The data used are the total number of annual vehicle kilometers and fatalities in each of 6 countries: Germany, Great Britain, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands and the United States.