Maximal share of cyclists using a nationwide status quo forecast as the background.

In the Federal Republic of Germany, a considerable effort is made to make persons aware of the many positive characteristics of cycling. Thus, research projects using very different types of approaches were done in order to study the bicycle potential which is possible. Simultaneously changes occur in the future which are not the result of the introduction of any new policies but rather the result of foreseeable changes in the socio-demographic structure of the population. A federal forecast on the probable development of cycling is now available. This makes it possible, for the first time, to show how the diverse efforts to encourage cycling can be quantitatively classified in this general development. The analysis of the potential is based on a model concept - the situational approach - which makes it possible to estimate the effectiveness of different measures (e.g., in the area of bicycle technology, infrastructure and promotion) to gain the cycling potential. It was shown that integrated measures are effective in encouraging cycling; however, simply building cycle routes without introducing any other measures results in a relatively minor increase in reaching the potential. It is also an important pre-condition that bicycle transportation planning take place in a community climate which is favourable to cycling. The analysis (of the potential) continues by determining the maximal change to bicycle from other modes which can be anticipated. By taking comprehensive steps to encourage cycling, as well as by restricting auto travel, it is possible to induce a considerable change from use of other modes to use of the bicycle. However, it is important to note the modes for which the bicycle is used as a substitute since encouraging cycling is not a means in itself but rather a strategy to free the urban environment of the negative side-effects of car traffic. Using the potential which can be gained as a basis, the forecast makes it possible to identify all the possible effects of bicycle use including investment, reduction of the pollution and noise level and modal split. (a) for the covering abstract of the seminar see IRRD 273510.