Applications of modern technologies to transportation require fast evaluation of safety. At the same time, modern technology affords new opportunities for measuring safety rapidly. This paper reviews the fundamental issues of measuring safety and then proposes extreme value statistics to estimate crash frequency from microscopic traffic observations. The paper presents a concept and initial results to encourage more research on the topic. A semi-empirical simulation experiment demonstrates that the precision of estimating crash frequency with the proposed method equals that of crash-based estimation within a fraction of the time needed to collect sufficient crash data. The proposed method could become an important tool for measuring safety (A). For the covering abstract of the conference see E217780.
Samenvatting