A general methodology is developed for estimating the change in the number of injuries and fatalities expected as a result of a change in vehicle crashworthiness design. It is assumed that crash tests have provided information on dummy response measurements, such as the maximum chest acceleration in a crash, and that based on these test results a conclusion has been reached as to the most likely effect of the design change on the response measurements. Cadaver injury risk curves, which give the probability of injury in terms of test crash measurements, and crash data injury risk curves, which give the probability of injury in terms of crash characteristics available in the actual crash data (such as delta-v in the NASS database), are used to translate the conclusions expressed in terms the test crash measurements to conclusions expressed in terms of the crash characteristics available in the crash database. The crash database is then used to estimate the injuries and fatalities expected on the road. Detailed calculations are presented for the case of estimating the expected increase in chest injuries and the related fatalities as a result of the depowering of air bags. (A)
Samenvatting