Methoden langfristiger Prognosen, gezeigt am Beispiel der Pkw-Motorisierung.

The meaning of forecasts as a part for planning is present. The different kinds of forecast methods, trend forecasts and model-forecasts and the methods and techniques of the nowadays known forecasts of vehicle ownership on the long term are presented and discussed. From this discussion and a literature review a new method is developed. The mathematical models for this method are presented.