Modal split considerations on long distance passenger traffic : effects of different relative increase in transportation costs, caused by higher energy prices.

A model explaining the relative distribution of long distance passenger traffic mainly on railway and air transport is developed. It is shown how increased prices of energy influence the relative distribution. Data from Norway are used to estimate coefficients in a model based on the logistic curve. Increase in energy prices are shown for railways, air and passenger cars. Theoretical calculations indicate in a certain case a 40% increase in railway traffic due to increased fares whereas traffic counts show 36%.