Monitor Beleidsimpuls Verkeersveiligheid 2014 : onderzoeksverantwoording.

Weijermars, W.A.M. Goldenbeld, C. Bijleveld, F.D. & Bos, N.M.

Monitor Policy Stimulus Road Safety 2014 : research justification. The Policy Stimulus Road Safety that was drawn up in 2012 contains 23 additional measures that the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment and its administrative and social partners intend to implement in order to reduce the number of serious road injuries. This monitor reports on the developments concerning numbers of casualties, exposure and risk and discusses the progress of the implementation and possible effects of the 23 additional measures. This report serves as a background report to brief report R-2015-3 in which the main findings are summarized for policy makers. The developments concerning the numbers of casualties are discussed for both the long term and the short term. Two indicators are used to describe these developments: ? The long term development; this indicator refers to the trend during the period 2004-2013 and is expressed in an average relative change per year. ? The short term development; this indicator is the comparison of the number of casualties during the most recent year (in this case 2013) with the average number of the three preceding years (2010-2012). The year 2013 counted 570 traffic fatalities and 18,800 serious road injuries. The number of deaths has decreased by 12% compared with the average over the previous three years and showed an average decline of 4.3% per year during the period 2004-2013. The most striking development is that the number of fatalities among motorcyclists has almost been halved in 2013. The decline was strongest in the months of May, June and September and for May and September this possibly coincides with a relatively large number of wet days. The number of serious road injuries has shown a rising trend during the last ten years, but seems to have decreased during the past two years. Most serious road injuries are cyclists in crashes in which no motor vehicles are involved. Their share in the total number of road crash casualties in the National Medical Register (LMR) has been increasing. Furthermore, the proportion of casualties aged 50 years and older has also been increasing. The proportion of cyclists sustaining injury in crashes with motor vehicles has been decreasing over the longer term, but seems to have been rising in recent years. As mobility did not show a clear increase or decline during the past ten years, the crash rate shows a development similar to that of the number of casualties. The Policy Stimulus correctly identified cyclists and the over-60s as target groups. During the last ten years the number of road fatalities did not show a declining trend for either of these groups. In addition, the share in LMR registered serious road injuries increased for these groups. The relatively unfavourable development in the number of casualties among the over-60s is linked with the rise in the ageing population. The fatality rate of the over- 60s declined during the past ten years, from about 12 deaths per billion miles in 2004 to about 8 in 2013. Another mobility development that is relevant for (older) cyclists is the rise of the electric bicycle, which is increasingly used by older cyclists. The likelihood of a crash (A&E treatment) is larger on an electric bicycle than on a conventional bicycle. Other groups that seem to show a less favourable development of the number of road fatalities are: • microcars, mobility scooters and other invalid vehicles; • moped and light moped riders; • 30 and 60 km/h roads. We recommend keeping a close watch on these groups and to formulate additional measures if this is necessary. The most important measure in the Policy Stimulus in relation to cycling is the Local approach to safe cycling. About a quarter of the municipalities (73 out of 289) that filled in a questionnaire in the Web tool 'Safe cycling' of Fietsberaad, already have a local approach towards safe cycling. Another 66% indicated that they were working on a plan or intended starting soon. The attention for bicycle safety, the quality and the implementation were positively reviewed for approximately three quarters of the 62 plans that were studied. The measures are intended to improve cyclist behaviour and the safety of the cycling infrastructure. The Policy Stimulus measures aimed at the elderly are carried out in the framework of stay mobile safely (BVM) and are aimed at promoting safe mobility of older people. Other measures from the Policy Stimulus which were carried out in 2014 are: • CROW publication Basic Characteristics Junctions and Roundabouts; • Measures for national roads in the context of ' More Safe-2 ', which is expected to save 3 to 5 fatalities and 21 to 35 serious road injuries in 2015; • activities by the Dutch Traffic Safety Association to promote safe neighbourhoods and invite civilians to report unsafe situations; • Signing of the STAR Safety Deal with the aim of improving the crash registration. During the period 2010-2014, other road safety measures were also taken outside the Policy Stimulus. Different road authorities took measures to increase the safety of their roads. There were some nationwide information campaigns, traffic education projects were carried out and educational measures were imposed on offenders. An accompanied driving trial (2toDrive) started in November 2011. The road traffic enforcement time by special enforcement teams remained the same, but the total number of road users stopped and fined by the police decreased. Cars are increasingly equipped with primary (active) and secondary ('passive') safety systems. High-quality data on numbers of casualties, mobility, road safety indicators and measures taken are indispensable for monitoring developments and evaluating measures. The quality of the available data leaves much to be desired. SWOV therefore recommends improving the quality of the necessary data.


C 51677 [electronic version only]

Den Haag, Stichting Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Verkeersveiligheid SWOV, 2014, 134 p., 87 ref.; R-2014-36A


Dit is een publicatie van SWOV, of waar SWOV een bijdrage aan heeft geleverd.