This paper describes research in which the distributions of travel characteristics were updated from a small local sample, using the method of Bayesian updating with subjective priors. The resulting distributions were found to resemble more closely those of the local area for which the simulation was being undertaken. The paper describes the procedure of updating. It then summarises the results obtained in updating the distributions for Adelaide in South Australia, using original distributions from the US and local census data, together with a local household travel survey. The paper also shows the results of expanding the simulated data to the region. These results are compared with the expansion of actual survey data for the region. It is found that the updated simulation gives a more accurate simulation result for the region than simulation without updating. This procedure offers a low -cost method for regions to develop simulated household travel survey data that can be used for description of the region's travel and the development of travel forecasting models, but at costs that are a fraction of those associated with normal household travel surveys. (a).
Samenvatting