Historical data on a small number of economic, demographic, and transportation variables from 1958 to 1986 were analyzed by multipleregression techniques to develop two models for forecasting transitridership in honolulu. A model predicting revenue trips and anotherfor linked trips were consistent in their determination that the same five variables could account for 97 to 98 percent of the variancein bus ridership over this 29-year period. The four major variableswere per capita income, employment, fares, and size of bus fleet, with a dummy variable included for strikes. The income elasticity fortransit demand was found to be negative, indicating that mass transit is an inferior good. The model forecasts a continuing decline in bus ridership for honolulu, mainly caused by this effect. The forecasting models for rapid transit ridership for honolulu are examined, and alternative approaches to assessing demand elasticities are discussed. The advantages of using aggregate historical data and regression analyses for developing inexpensive forecasting models from timeseries data are emphasized. This paper appears in transportation research record no. 1297, Public transit research: management and planning 1991 .
Samenvatting