Oil consumption is increasingly concentrated in transport and relatively limited fluctuations in transport demand have increasingly significant effects on oil prices. Oil prices increased to all time highs at the beginning of 2008, exceeding $100 a barrel for the first time since the 1979 oil crisis. The underlying driving force is demand from rapidly developing economies and especially China,where transport accounts for the largest part of oil consumption. OPEC market power is increasing as production of conventional oil outside OPEC has reached a plateau. Oil from tar sands in Canada and elsewhere is available in very large quantities, and is competitiveat sustained prices above $40 a barrel, but processing such oil doubles carbon dioxide emissions on a well-to-wheels basis compared with using conventional oil to fuel transport. This publication gives details of the policy instruments available to address oil security and climate change and examines their interaction with measures to manage congestion and mitigate local air pollution. A number of incompatibilities and trade-offs are identified underlining the importance of integrated policy making. An examination of the factors that drive oil prices in the short- and long-term and a discussion of the outlook for oil supply are included. This publication isalso available in a separate French language version with the title: Petrole et transport: la fin des carburants a prix abordable?
Samenvatting