This article presents a methodology to determine the optimal intensity of Incident Management (IM) on the road. The probability of time loss because of an incident is combined with the expected average time loss in the cost function of the road user. New element is the inclusion of the elasticity of demand in the model. The change in welfare because of IM is analyzed for three types of incidents: exogenous incidents, one-sided incidents and two-sided incidents. The change in welfare because of IM will be overestimated if the elasticity of demand is not included in the model. In a numerical example it is shown that this overestimation can increase until 30% for roads where the number of road users is close to capacity. Finally, the optimal intensity of Incident Management is determined for two policy options: extra ICT and extra emergency vehicles. It is shown that the elasticity ofdemand has a significant impact on the optimal intensity of Incident Management. Ignoring the elasticity of demand in welfare analysis can lead to overinvestment in IM-policy. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting