One continuing issue of concern in Scottish transport policy is Scotland’s access to London Heathrow Airport (LHR). Being able to fly to LHR to be able to connect to the international sectors which can only be accessed or accessed easily via that airport, is regarded as being of critical importance for the Scottish economy. So, faced with a measurable decline in both numbers of flights and passenger loads between Scotland and LHR over the last ten years, it is no surprise that the Scottish Ministers, as well as many in the business community 3, have raised concerns at this trend. Secondary concerns include the access for domestic journeys through LHR (that is, those to and from London proper), and also some specific questions of access to LHR for both Glasgow and Inverness. These are also discussed in the paper, in order to provide the wider context. The purpose of this paper is to quantify and document the evidence behind the changing trends in access to Heathrow for connecting and domestic flights as well as understanding the wider Scotland-London travel market. Accordingly, the paper is structured in four parts. First, the trends in Scottish access to LHR are documented. Second, a variety of ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors are identified which explain the changes over time in the interlining traffic. Third, there is a discussion of the changes in the domestic traffics (including rail) between Scotland and London as a whole, and also between the UK regions and London as a whole. This is because the trends in these markets shed more light on the situation at LHR. Fourth, a variety of policy objectives are discussed. Essentially, a call is made for more clarity in the debate over access to LHR, on the basis that it must be seen as part of the wider transport task between Scotland and the rest of the world, in a market which has already seen significant change over the last ten years, and is likely to see as much change in the next ten. This paper is a development out of work first published in Clark, 2013. The data used for this analysis are mostly from the Civil Aviation Authority, and thus are in the public domain; and with data from the Office of Rail Regulation, and further data from a survey of Web airfares included as well. Disclaimer: this paper has been produced in a personal capacity; it is not an official Transport Scotland research project; and its views do not necessarily reflect official Transport Scotland policy. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting