Ordinal Regression Model for Forecasting En Route Controller Requirements.

A model for forecasting enroute controller requirements was developed by Tien and Schonfeld [1] for incorporation into the FAA's NAS Strategy Simulator. In this study, one critical component in their work is improved by using probit regression model in order to more reasonably predict the number of controller positions per sector. Probabilities of using between 0 and 4 controllers per sector are estimated from the controller work history based on traffic densities and other sector characteristics. The improved controller estimation model is then demonstrated for its practicability and can provide an estimate of annual controller requirements in response to future traffic growth and capacity for evaluating future enroute performance.