Police Enforcement Policy and Programmes on European Roads (PEPPER). Workpackage WP4 `Good Practices in Traffic Enforcement', Working paper 23: Framework for the prediction of the effects of road traffic enforcement measures.

The first development version of a framework for the prediction of the effects on accidents of traffic law enforcement measures is described. It should provide a rough estimate of the expected effects on accidents or injuries. The prediction process involves the following main stages: a) selection of target behaviour, b) definition of enforcement measure, c) definition of the expected effect on road user behaviour, d) definition of the expected percentage change in accidents or injuries resulting from the change in behaviour, e) definition of the baseline number of accidents or injuries, f) calculation of the effect on the number of accidents or injuries, and g) assessment of the uncertainty of the results. The framework is meant to be easy to use by those who make enforcement plans and approve them. It suits best for the prediction of the effects of large scale measures or enforcement campaigns. All data and calculations are presented in a transparent way. (Author/publisher) For the project website, and other reports, see http://www.vtt.fi/sites/pepper/