Automated driving has been receiving enormous attention by industry, government and academia. Although high expectations rest on this evolving transportation technology, little is known about its impacts. Most papers published so far have explored technological aspects of vehicle automation and impacts on driver and traffic flow characteristics. However, the interest about the wider implications of automated vehicles is constantly growing as this technology evolves. In this paper, we explore the potential effects of automated driving relevant for policy and society, review literature results about those effects and identify areas for future research. We structure our review based on the ripple effect concept, which represents implications of automated vehicles at three stages: first-order (traffic, travel cost, and travel choices), second-order (vehicle ownership and sharing, location choices and land use, and transport infrastructure) and third-order (energy consumption, air pollution, safety, social equity, economy, and public health). Our review shows that first-order impacts on road capacity, fuel efficiency, emissions, and accidents risk are expected to be beneficial. The magnitude of these benefits will likely increase with the level of automation and cooperation and with the penetration rate of these systems. The synergistic effects between vehicle automation, electrification and sharification can multiply these benefits. However, studies confirm that automated vehicles can induce additional travel demand because of more and longer vehicle trips. Potential land use changes have not included in these estimations about excessive travel demand. Other third-order benefits on safety, economy, public health and social equity still remain unclear. Therefore, the balance between short-term benefits and long-term impacts of vehicle automation remains an open question. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting