The relationship between globalization and transport volumes is complex because of many causes. Rising incomes, more leisure time, new technologies and the ageing of the population are just a few examples of trends that will influence the future development of the transport sector in terms of both passenger and freight transport. This means that the future of the transport sector is characterized by uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to map out the possible impacts of current globalization trends on the European transport sector in terms of transport flows and carbon dioxide emissions by means of a novel multilayer assessment model. By applying a scenario approach and designing four contrasting development paths seen from a European perspective, the alternative futures of the sector are assessed in terms of transport volumes and emissions. The empirical findings appear to result almost everywhere in a (strong) growth of transport and emissions. Hence, the intriguing research question is now whether the introduction of specific environmentally benign policies in Europe could change this development. Consequently, the paper confronts the foreseen EU objectives with current policies, as creating sustainable mobility is a key element in EU transport policy. Our findings indicate, however, that the achievement of sustainable mobility is rather problematic. Effective policy implementation and (as yet uncertain) new technology developments may offer new opportunities to achieve a more balanced development of the transport sector. However, in most cases, only a combination of strict environmental policies (including transport policy) and a fundamental change of lifestyles in the mobile society is likely to lead to a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions in the next 20 years. (Author/publisher).
Samenvatting