The project - Test-site-Oriented SCenario Assessment (TOSCA I) - was initiated in 1990 by the Swedish Transport and Communications Research Board (KFB) and the Swedish National Road Administration (VV). A first evaluation of ITS, based on applications in the Swedish test-site ARENA, was made in 1990-92 and reported in VNIS'92. The work has continued 1993-95 (TOSCA II) in parallel with the field trials in ARENA. The project has contained a cost-estimation of ATT/ITS scenarios, macro simulation of effects and cost-benefit analyses. The work has been reported in six Deliverables and a final report. In order to assess the effects of implementing ITS sufficient knowledge must be at hand concerning technical development, level of quality and cost, behavioural changes and social acceptancy for controlling and intervening systems. The core of the integrated evaluation system has been the demand model FREDRIK and the assignment model EMME/2. Scenarios for implementing Transport Telematics in the Goeteborg region were defined in 1992-93. Goeteborg is the second largest city in Sweden with a surrounding region of 750 000 inhabitants. The conceptual structure has contained different possible development paths: trend scenarios in which ATT will be implemented on a large scale by markets without intervention and Strategy scenarios in which ATT will be implemented (by various forms of political intervention) to further explicitly-defined environmental and traffic safety objectives. Transport telematics has a great potential to reduce the inconveniences associated with incidents if reliable information is distributed rapidly and if Incident management and the Rescue service are efficiently organized. The calculations also show that safety and environmental goals can be achieved by a consequent Road pricing strategy starting from marginal cost pricing and mandatory and intervening Speed adaptation systems. These measures are controversial and require difficult balancing between individual and collective goals. In the short run, implementation of Urban traffic control and Route guidance systems that show good profitability in the trend scenario in year 2000, are recommended. Society should further invest in the basic infrastructure for Route guidance systems consisting of the Traffic control centre and automatic detecting systems as well as a common information database containing link times and delay by incidents. (A) Also reported at the 3rd World Congress on ITS, Florida, 1996 (IRRD 897264).
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