Potential intermodal transport between the EU-15 and the CEECs. This paper describes the methodology for determining the potential future intermodal transport demand in 2015 followed by an overview of the potential future intermodal transport demand for a reference scenario and an alternative scenario. The applied approach determines the potential future intermodal transport flows based on characteristics of a forecast of the total future transport demand. The forecast of the total transport demand is considered as a reservoir of conventional and intermodal transport flows. In order to determine what part of this reservoir belongs to the future intermodal transport demand a number of criteria like transport distance, transport volume, commodity types and intermodal market shares are applied on the total forecasted future transport flows. The flows fulfilling the different thresholds of the criteria are being indicated as future potential intermodal transport. The overview of the future potential intermodal transport demand is a good indication of where developments of intermodal transport can be expected in the future. How large the actual intermodal transport demand in 2015 finally will be depends not only on technical conditions related to transport flows but also to a large extent on the decisions taken by actors in the market, local governments, EU policy and the interaction between them. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting