The prediction of car ownership and use revisited : the beginning of the end?

This paper summarises developments in the short- term forecasting of car ownership and use in the United Kingdom and presents an approach to their long- term forecasting related to the theory of Kondratiev cycles ('economic long waves'). Much more detailed models, like the author's card model, are required to estimate short- term changes. The author considers that reasonable predictions of the long- term changes in travel, that the next kondratiev cycle will bring, can be made only by detailed analysis of expenditure data, such as those of the family expenditure survey, and time data, such as those of the national travel survey.