This paper seeks a way to define and estimate monetary values of safety. The willingness to pay (WTP) approach attempts to determine the maximum amount that those affected would pay for small improvements in safety. These amounts are aggregated to arrive at an overall value for the safety improvement concerned. To standardise values of safety, the concept of prevention of a statistical fatality/injury is employed. The paper considers how to obtain empirical estimates of WTP-based values of safety. A UK research project commissioned by the government aimed to estimate a tariff of WTP-based values of safety for a number of different contexts. A value for prevention of fatality (VPF) was derived for roads, and ratios estimated between roads and other hazard contexts, including rail. A follow-up study was carried out following a major rail accident in 1999 and it was found that the VPF ratio to roads had not risen. The track management company employs two different VPFs for different situations, and the authors propose that the higher figure is not justified if public concern is based on media and political response. For the covering abstract see ITRD E119655.
Samenvatting