Developing countries seek public private partnerships to establish mass rapid transit systems in metropolitan cities. These founder owing to differing risk perceptions of participants and the associated increase in capital costs owing to risk premiums. The authors argue that risk analyses should be conducted with probabilistic demand estimates rather than conventional single variant sensitivity analysis. The availability of inexpensive, powerful desktop computers has made this a feasible proposition. The methodology developed by the authors in this paper is an additional module to a four-module planning model presented in earlier CODATU conferences. The probabilistic methodology is validated with data for Bangalore pertaining to 1994. This methodology could facilitate improved sharing of risks between stakeholders. For the covering abstract see ITRD E116619.
Samenvatting