Less than one percent of all accidents are classified as catastrophes by the arbitrary definition of either 10 fatalities, 30 injuries, or $3 million in property damage, yet nearly all media and public attention focuses on such incidents. On the other hand, it is recognized that the potential for large, but rare transportation accidents exists. Should these be taken into account in transportation safety? If so, a number of questions must be addressed: • How may such risks be estimated? • How big a problem are these potential risks? • What is the proper mix of prevention, mitigation, and disaster relief strategies? • What resources should be devoted to research in respect to the scope of the problem? • Who would address such risks? • Under what conditions are such risks acceptable? The paper will focus on the problems of estimating such risks and provide a framework for identifying them. Problems in the data bases for estimating rare events are covered, and subsequently several possible schemes for identifying risk-prone systems are provided. They are presented as possible approaches for consideration and not as developed methodologies. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting