Hague Consulting Group is currently developing a comprehensive modelling system to forecast rail passenger behaviour at a national level for the Netherlands Railways (NS). This new model will incorporate detailed train schedules, local public transport, quality aspects of travel choice behaviour and detailed representation of person types. These elements will allow the system to focus on rail policy and market analysis. The "core" of the system consists of a main mode choice model and train access and egress mode choice models. Trip generation, distribution and time-of-day choice models will also be included. Within the main mode choice model is a detailed "train choice" model which predicts predicts the choice of train route and train type over a series of train alternatives for a given time period. This model can subsequently be expanded to incorporate a number of train quality aspects such as comfort and overcrowding, based on the results of stated preference (SP) surveys. The model is designed for in-house use by the NS, interacting with existing NS software. A Windows interface will allow NS users to specify policy scenarios, apply the model system and present results.
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