This paper describes the study carried out by Prognos AB into the potential future trade between East and West and its consequences for freight transport. The countries chosen and the data used in the study are discussed. The first part of the paper then examines social and economic bases for future transport. Population trends are examined in terms of growth and age structure. East-West trade is then analysed between 1980 and 1989 and two estimates made for the outlook for the year 2000. These are a 'trend estimate' reflecting conditions before changes in Eastern Europe and a 'potential estimate' of what is now seen possible. The consequences for transport are discussed. The second part of the paper describes the prospects for East-West freight transport as determined by modelling techniques. Transport volumes between East and West are used as a `base case' and between Western countries as a `comparative case'. Estimates are made for the effect of removing the Iron Curtain and scenarios are described for 2 alternative modal splits. The results are presented graphically and some of the important points highlighted.
Samenvatting