A result of the slow percolation of technological progress in transport is the idea that steadily increasing mobility is a structural given of modern society. This paper questions this assumption on the basis of energy-related / environmental constraints, the sustainability of economic growth, and future lifestyle choice. Many retrospective studies show that the mobility of people (and goods) is closely correlated with economic growth, giving rise to the idea of coupling between mobility and standard of living. However speed of transport is clearly related to the distance that people are willing to travel and lasting structural changes lie behind the coupling of mobility and economic growth. Decreasing transport monetary costs, especially of long haul flights, are also a factor in increasing distances travelled. When income rises faster than the amount of time available, the value of time also increases, which means that the time budget spent on each activity becomes smaller. This implies that people travel further, faster, more often and for shorter periods for their leisure activities as the demand for variety increases. It is questioned whether the failure of car traffic in Europe to continue its increase since the early 2000s represents the first sign of uncoupling linked to a saturation of demand for mobility. It is suggested that personal attitudes are changing towards allowing enough time to maximise the benefit from travel. However the demand for international air travel continues to increase, posing a problem for greenhouse gas emissions. Projections suggest strong growth in inter-urban passenger transport to 2050 for France, especially the use of high speed trains and air transport using one scenario. Another scenario shows more modest growth in demand where carbon tradeable permits are introduced. For the covering abstract see ITRD E146823
Samenvatting