Reliability analysis covered in this research work is based on numerical estimation of the range of possible travel times where the journey consists of multiple travel segments. The journey time distribution for passengers may have a wide spread depending on whether passengers miss a bus or catch an early one, and their ability to make scheduled connections at the interchange. The travel time distribution has gaps approximately equal to headway of the second travel segment making it difficult to formulate general analytical models using continuous functions. The ability of the proposed model to vary dispatch times and segment travel times according to number of different probability distributions makes this model suitable for analysis of real transport systems. At present the model is able to handle up to seven connected travel segments. The analysis based on this model has shown that dispatch time variations alone (with constant segment travel times) may cause waiting time distribution to spread over three times the range experienced under scheduled services. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E210528.
Samenvatting