This report discusses the possible uses of an understanding of the social factors influencing behaviour in forecasting car ownership. Official forecasting techniques employed in the UK are described, and the case for change is reviewed. Particular attention is devoted to the potential for developing models which replicate the process of change in car ownership. Some empirical examples in which an understanding of behaviour has been applied to car ownership forecasting are considered. These show the reasons why people give up or acquire cars, and demonstrate the data requirements of this kind of research and the types of statement about the future which can be made. It is concluded that the tyupe of model which reproduces actual behaviour fully is likely to be too complex and data-intensive to replace more conventional forecasting techniques completely, although some models might be feasible for particular areas or population groups. however the report shows that an understanding of the social factors influencing behaviour can provide valuable background information for enhancing conventional forecasting models and can also suggest the possible structure of alternative forecasting models. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting