THE VEHICLE OCCUPANT FATALITY FIGURES IN THE USA HAVE SHOWN A STEADY INCREASE FOR THE PAST 5 YEARS AND THE TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. AS PART OF THE NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION (NHTSA), THE AGENCY HAS BEEN PROJECTING THE FUTURE AUTOMOBILE FLEET COMPOSITIONS AND THE TREND EXPECTED IN OCCUPANT FATALITIES. INCLUDED IN THE FATALITY TREND PROJECTIONS ARE THE EFFECTS OF FLEET COMPOSITION, VEHICLE WEIGHT CHANGES, AND POTENTIAL BENEFITS FROM OCCUPANT RESTRAINT SYSTEMS. ONE OF THE RESEARCH TOOLS FOR TREND PROJECTIONS IS AN ANALYTICAL MODEL: THE YEARLY FATALITY PREDICTION MODEL (FPM), CAPABLE OF PREDICTING OCCUPANT FATALITIES IN SINGLE, TWO-VEHICLE AND MULTI-VEHICLE ACCIDENTS IN TEN CLASSES OF VEHICLES. THE FPM USES A SUB-MODEL KNOWN AS THE YEARLY FLEET PROJECTION SUB-MODEL (FPSM), TO DETERMINE THE COMPOSITION OF THE ON-THE-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLE FLEET FOR THE YEARS FOR WHICH FATALITY PREDICTIONS ARE MADE. THIS PAPER DESCRIBES THE FPSM AND THE OVERALL FPM. THE FIRST PART OF THE PAPER DESCRIBES THE UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS MADE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL. THE NEXT SECTION DESCRIBES THE FPSM AND THE FPM. THE LAST SECTION PRESENTS THE RESULTS OBTAINED FROM EXERCISING THE MODEL. (A) FOR THE COVERING ABSTRACT OF SECTION 5 SEE IRRD 266063. FOR THE COVERING ABSTRACT OF THE CONFERENCE SEE IRRD 266046.
Samenvatting