This report describes the analysis of the effect of exchanging passenger car mobility for bicycle mobility on the number of fatalities and serious road injuries in the Netherlands. A precise calculation of this effect is not possible due to a lack of information, but we were able to give a first and rough approximation of the safety effect. The analysis considers a substitution of 10% of car trips shorter than 7.5 km by bicycle trips. The analysis is done ceteris paribus, thus, all relevant parameters are assumed to remain equal (except of course mobility). Assuming that the increase in bicycle trips is distributed equally over the network, time of day etc., as current bicycle mobility is, the increase in the number of fatalities and serious road injuries in crashes involving bicycles can be estimated. In the same way, the decrease in the number of fatalities and serious road injuries in crashes involving cars is estimated, assuming that the mobility decrease has the same safety properties as the remaining car mobility.
Samenvatting