This paper describes the long-term forecasting approach, and the newer techniques associated with short-term forecasting for passenger traffic, for the Channel Tunnel. Short-term to long-term forecasts of traffic and revenue are all based on the following procedure: (1) use surveys to define the existing market; (2) use all-mode demand models to forecast the market's growth; (3) use mode-route allocation models to estimate how much of the market will divert from air and ferry modes; (4) estimate additional traffic arising from the Tunnel; and (5) estimate Eurotunnel's revenue by multiplying forecast traffic by anticipated tariffs. Some assumptions of this procedure are indicated. The potential indicated. The potential market for Tunnel passenger services is defined in terms of catchment area and passenger categories. It is assumed that a passenger will choose his transport mode and route by trying to minimise a combined function of journey time, cost and freqeuncy. The new procedures for short-term forecasts differ from medium- to long-term procedures in: (1) level of detail, of market segmentation, seasonality, and statistical techniques; and (2) use of stated preference surveys. The main aims of the short-term procedure are outlined.
Samenvatting