A general procedure for forecasting all important sources of state transportation revenue was developed and applied in six example states (Washington, New York, Virginia, Tennessee, Iowa, and New Mexico). The revenue forecast procedures are sensitive to energy conditions and policies, including the effects of Federal fuel efficiency standards for automobiles and light trucks, motor fuel efficiency standards for the 55 mile-per-hour speed limit, and increased expenditures for transit and ridesharing. Alternative revenue sources that were examined include motor fuel sales taxes, motor fuel-per-gallon taxes indexed to costs or prices, exemptions of gasohol from taxation, and changes in the basis of light duty registration fees from weight based to flat fee, or vice versa. The impacts of tax burdens on income groups and on types of vehicles have also been examined. The appendixes detail the procedures that can be used to forecast state transportation revenues.
Samenvatting