This paper describes the Transit Likelihood Index, a method developed for estimating station station-specific commuter rail ridership. The Transit Likelihood Index method was used to adjust the 2025 City of Petaluma, California regional travel demand model forecasts to reflect the impact of the proposed Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit (SMART) commuter rail system. The method estimates the change in transit use likelihood between a base case and future cases, given differences in development density in proximity to rail transit stations and changes in rail service levels. The base case and future cases index values can be compared to predict percentage increases in transit use at a given rail station. This change in transit use can be used in conjunction with a region-wide commuter rail forecast to estimate station station-specific commuter rail ridership. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E213531.
Samenvatting