Presented is a conceptual framework applied by research teams from 6 countries, with comparative results (expressed in easy-to-understand elasticity form) on the road safety impacts of factors pertaining to the economy, infrastructure, vehicles and driving. Differing effects by accident severity category demonstrate the need for the multiple-level DRAG-type formulation of the road safety problem. New results are presented that redefine many regulation issues. For instance: salutary effects of higher fuel prices, congestion and perhaps moderate alcohol consumption; deleterious effects of early pregnancy; high vehicle occupancy and of various laws and safety measures; mixed effects of road design and surface features. Demonstrations are given of the decisiveness of Box-Cox methods that determine the form of relationships within a given model. Reported tests with documented TRIO algorithms throw doubt on results obtained from any untested fixed-form model. Presented are leading-edge non linear methods and results on the measurement of multi-moment Allias risk trade-offs of relevance to financial analysis and the establishment of the value of human life. Also a practical application of Knight's famous distinction between risk and uncertainty is given. (A)
Samenvatting